FC Botosani 2–3 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

FC Botosani

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

FCSB

S. Mailat 66', 13'

M. Edjouma 73'

A. Compagno 30'

J. Tamm 21'

12/1/2022

Liga I · Round 6Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

FC Botosani49%

×Draw23%

FCSB28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BotosaniExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.32

FC Botosani

1.83

FCSB

1.32

FC Botosani creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 5 away

1.72

creates per match

1.62

1.02

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

FC Botosani

1.72

FCSB

1.62

allows per match

FC Botosani

1.02

FCSB

1.94

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

FC Botosani-0.17scores less

FCSB+0.18scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw

72%

FC Botosani or FCSB

77%

Draw or FCSB

51%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+

27%

FCSB wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals

84%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

54%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

28%

FCSB 1+ goals

73%

FCSB 2+ goals

38%

FCSB 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

64%

FCSB (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.02 · 11 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.94 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.72 + FCSB defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.83

FCSB attack 1.62 + FC Botosani defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Botosani scores more

49%

level

23%

FCSB scores more

28%

FC Botosani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

Andrea Compagno

13'

S. Mailat↳ V. Dican

21'

J. Tamm↳ Octavian Popescu

27'

Darius Olaru

30'

A. Compagno↳ D. Olaru

46'

M. Edjouma← R. Oaidă

46'

A. Pantea← V. Crețu

58'

C. Zabou← A. Tîrcoveanu

58'

F. Mussis← A. Ivanov

66'

S. Mailat↳ Mihai Roman II

67'

B. Omrani← A. Compagno

67'

D. Miculescu← A. Cordea

73'

M. Edjouma

74'

Y. Sylla← R. Sadiku

74'

V. Pinson← P. Petkovski

82'

Grigoras Pantea

83'

S. Camara← Mihai Roman II

88'

D. Haruţ← Octavian Popescu

Possession

Shots

Statistics

FCFCSB

Overview

48%Possession52%

11Total Shots19

7Corners4

2Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots19

5On Target10

3Off Target7

3Blocked2

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

2Fouls10

0Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0