FC Botosani 0–2 FCSB: Result & Stats | Liga I

FC Botosani

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FCSB

11/9/2019

Liga I · Round 16Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

FC Botosani44%

×Draw24%

FCSB33%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC BotosaniExpected goals in this matchFCSB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.44

FC Botosani

1.70

FCSB

1.44

FC Botosani creates 18% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

1.65

creates per match

1.75

1.13

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

FC Botosani

1.65

FCSB

1.75

allows per match

FC Botosani

1.13

FCSB

1.75

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

+0.14scores more than expected

finishing

FC Botosani-0.23scores less

FCSB+0.14scores more

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

FCSB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw

67%

FC Botosani or FCSB

76%

Draw or FCSB

56%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+

23%

FCSB wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals

82%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

51%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

24%

FCSB 1+ goals

76%

FCSB 2+ goals

42%

FCSB 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

57%

FCSB (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.65, concedes 1.13 · 12 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.65 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.70

FCSB attack 1.75 + FC Botosani defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FC Botosani scores more

44%

level

24%

FCSB scores more

33%

FC Botosani at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff