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FC Botosani vs FC Clinceni — Liga I 2018

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
9/20/2020Liga ILiga I · Round 4Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

FC Botosani53%
×Draw25%
FC Clinceni22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.64
FC Clinceni
0.97

FC Botosani creates 69% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 59 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.30
FC Clinceni
0.90

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.03
FC Clinceni
1.98

finishing

FC Botosani+0.00on par
FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

FC Clinceni →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
78%
FC Botosani or FC Clinceni
75%
Draw or FC Clinceni
47%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
28%
FC Clinceni wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
81%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
49%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
23%
FC Clinceni 1+ goals
62%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
25%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
70%
FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 156 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.30 + FC Clinceni defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.64

FC Clinceni attack 0.90 + FC Botosani defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

FC Botosani scores more
53%
level
25%
FC Clinceni scores more
22%

FC Botosani at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Botosani vs FC Clinceni

FC Botosani and FC Clinceni drew 0-0 in Liga I on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Botoşani.