FC Basel 1893 2–1 Yverdon Sport: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Yverdon Sport

11/5/2023

Super League · Round 13St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

FC Basel 189352%

×Draw23%

Yverdon Sport24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchYverdon Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.14

FC Basel 1893

1.78

Yverdon Sport

1.14

FC Basel 1893 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.96

creates per match

1.23

1.04

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.96

Yverdon Sport

1.23

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.04

Yverdon Sport

1.60

-0.40scores less than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.40scores less

Yverdon Sport-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Yverdon Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

76%

FC Basel 1893 or Yverdon Sport

77%

Draw or Yverdon Sport

48%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

29%

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

83%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

53%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

26%

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

68%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

32%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

68%

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.96 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.78

Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

52%

level

23%

Yverdon Sport scores more

24%

FC Basel 1893 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff