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FC Basel 1893 vs Servette FC — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Servette FC
Servette FC
10/21/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

FC Basel 189348%
×Draw24%
Servette FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.74
Servette FC
1.27

FC Basel 1893 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.96
Servette FC
1.51

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.04
Servette FC
1.52

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.40scores less
Servette FC+0.02on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

Servette FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
72%
FC Basel 1893 or Servette FC
76%
Draw or Servette FC
52%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
26%
Servette FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
82%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
52%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
25%
Servette FC 1+ goals
72%
Servette FC 2+ goals
36%
Servette FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
63%
Servette FC (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

Servette FC away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.96 + Servette FC defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.74

Servette FC attack 1.51 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
48%
level
24%
Servette FC scores more
28%

FC Basel 1893 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: FC Basel 1893 0–1 Servette FC

Servette FC beat FC Basel 1893 1-0 in Super League on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.