FC Basel 1893 1–4 FC Zurich: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

FC Zurich

Arthur Cabral 75'

A. Marchesano 90+4' (pen)

F. Frei 80' (OG)

L. Sobiech 73'

E. Cömert 67' (OG)

1/23/2021

Super League · Round 15St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

FC Basel 189348%

×Draw24%

FC Zurich27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchFC Zurich

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.17

FC Basel 1893

1.65

FC Zurich

1.17

FC Basel 1893 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 11 away

1.83

creates per match

1.16

1.18

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.83

FC Zurich

1.16

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.18

FC Zurich

1.47

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.03on par

FC Zurich-0.07on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Zurich →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

73%

FC Basel 1893 or FC Zurich

76%

Draw or FC Zurich

52%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

26%

FC Zurich wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

81%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

49%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

23%

FC Zurich 1+ goals

69%

FC Zurich 2+ goals

33%

FC Zurich 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

64%

FC Zurich (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 15 matches

FC Zurich away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.83 + FC Zurich defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC Zurich attack 1.16 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

48%

level

24%

FC Zurich scores more

27%

FC Basel 1893 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Marchesano

FC Zurich · F

8.3

Match Events

27'

Blaž Kramer

28'

Pajtim Kasami

46'

E. Zhegrova← V. Stocker

50'

Afimico Pululu

55'

S. Wallner← B. Omeragić

56'

Raoul Petretta

62'

Blerim Džemaili

62'

Ousmane Doumbia

67'

E. CömertOwn goal

69'

A. Ceesay← B. Kramer

70'

W. Gnonto← M. Schönbächler

71'

J. von Moos← S. Widmer

71'

A. Padula← Afimico Pululu

73'

L. Sobiech↳ B. Džemaili

75'

Arthur Cabral

77'

R. van Wolfswinkel← P. Kasami

80'

T. Domgjoni← B. Džemaili

80'

F. FreiOwn goal

90+4'

A. MarchesanoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCFC

Overview

61%Possession39%

16Total Shots19

7Corners4

17Fouls12

Shots

16Total Shots19

7On Target4

4Off Target9

5Blocked6

10Inside Box13

6Outside Box6

Passing

61%Possession39%

505Total Passes311

410Accurate Passes233

81%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3