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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
4/6/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Round 31St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 147+ matches

FC Basel 189347%
×Draw24%
FC Lugano29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.65
FC Lugano
1.23

FC Basel 1893 creates 34% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 147 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.87
FC Lugano
1.39

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.07
FC Lugano
1.43

finishing

FC Basel 1893+0.00on par
FC Lugano+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
71%
FC Basel 1893 or FC Lugano
76%
Draw or FC Lugano
53%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
25%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
81%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
49%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
23%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
71%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
35%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
62%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.07 · 147 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.43 · 147 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.87 + FC Lugano defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.65

FC Lugano attack 1.39 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
47%
level
24%
FC Lugano scores more
29%

FC Basel 1893 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano

FC Basel 1893 beat FC Lugano 2-0 in Super League on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.