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FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC Lugano
FC Lugano
J. van der Werff 89'
Arthur Cabral 84'
C. Lungoyi 87'
Asumah Abubakar 36'
1/31/2021Super LeagueSuper League · Round 17St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Basel 189349%
×Draw24%
FC Lugano27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.68
FC Lugano
1.19

FC Basel 1893 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.83
FC Lugano
1.19

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.18
FC Lugano
1.52

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.03on par
FC Lugano+0.19scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

FC Lugano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
73%
FC Basel 1893 or FC Lugano
76%
Draw or FC Lugano
51%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
26%
FC Lugano wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
81%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
50%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
24%
FC Lugano 1+ goals
70%
FC Lugano 2+ goals
33%
FC Lugano 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
64%
FC Lugano (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 15 matches

FC Lugano away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.52 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.83 + FC Lugano defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.68

FC Lugano attack 1.19 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
49%
level
24%
FC Lugano scores more
27%

FC Basel 1893 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
N. LavanchyFC LuganoFC Lugano · M
7.5

Match Events

36'
Asumah Abubakar↳ Á. Kecskés
46'
Y. Marchand← A. Abrashi
46'
M. Čovilo← M. Marić
59'
Arthur Cabral← E. Zhegrova
65'
R. Macek← S. Lovric
65'
C. Lungoyi← M. Bottani
71'
Eray Cömert
71'
J. van der Werff← A. Padula
71'
Afimico Pululu← R. van Wolfswinkel
73'
Jonathan Sabbatini
77'
A. Gerndt← Asumah Abubakar
84'
Arthur Cabral
87'
C. Lungoyi↳ N. Lavanchy
88'
M. Facchinetti← Adrià Guerrero
89'
J. van der Werff
90'
Noam Baumann

Possession

65%FC

Shots

13FC

Pass accuracy

56%FC

Statistics

FCFC
Overview
65%Possession35%
13Total Shots12
8Corners5
13Fouls12
Shots
13Total Shots12
5On Target3
6Off Target4
2Blocked5
7Inside Box7
6Outside Box5
Passing
65%Possession35%
564Total Passes282
475Accurate Passes188
84%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs FC Lugano

FC Basel 1893 and FC Lugano drew 2-2 in Super League on January 31, 2021.

Goals: Asumah Abubakar (36'), Arthur Cabral (84'), C. Lungoyi (87'), J. van der Werff (89').

FC Basel 1893 controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.