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FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys — Super League 2018

FC Basel 1893
FC Basel 1893
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
4/16/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 28St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

FC Basel 189356%
×Draw22%
BSC Young Boys21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Basel 1893
1.91
BSC Young Boys
1.09

FC Basel 1893 creates 75% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

FC Basel 1893
1.96
BSC Young Boys
1.15

allows per match

FC Basel 1893
1.04
BSC Young Boys
1.86

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.40scores less
BSC Young Boys+0.60scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw
79%
FC Basel 1893 or BSC Young Boys
78%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
44%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+
33%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals
85%
FC Basel 1893 2+ goals
57%
FC Basel 1893 3+ goals
30%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
66%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
30%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)
72%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.04 · 9 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.86 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.96 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.91

BSC Young Boys attack 1.15 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more
56%
level
22%
BSC Young Boys scores more
21%

FC Basel 1893 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys

FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys drew 1-1 in Super League on April 16, 2023.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.