FC Basel 1893 3–2 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

FC Basel 1893

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

BSC Young Boys

Arthur Cabral 61', 48'

S. Campo 13'

C. Fassnacht 70'

J. Nsamé 66'

7/11/2020

Super League · Round 30St. Jakob-Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FC Basel 189349%

×Draw24%

BSC Young Boys27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FC Basel 1893Expected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.21

FC Basel 1893

1.72

BSC Young Boys

1.21

FC Basel 1893 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.83

creates per match

1.25

1.18

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

FC Basel 1893

1.83

BSC Young Boys

1.25

allows per match

FC Basel 1893

1.18

BSC Young Boys

1.61

-0.03on par

finishing

+0.33scores more than expected

finishing

FC Basel 1893-0.03on par

BSC Young Boys+0.33scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Basel 1893 ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

FC Basel 1893 or draw

73%

FC Basel 1893 or BSC Young Boys

76%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

51%

Winning margin

FC Basel 1893 wins by 2+

27%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

FC Basel 1893 1+ goals

82%

FC Basel 1893 2+ goals

51%

FC Basel 1893 3+ goals

25%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

70%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

34%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

FC Basel 1893 (draw refunded)

65%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Basel 1893 at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.18 · 15 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.61 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Basel 1893 attack 1.83 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.72

BSC Young Boys attack 1.25 + FC Basel 1893 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Basel 1893 scores more

49%

level

24%

BSC Young Boys scores more

27%

FC Basel 1893 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Basel 1893 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

V. Stocker

FC Basel 1893 · M

8.2

Match Events

13'

S. Campo↳ A. Pululu

23'

A. Pululu

32'

S. Janko

46'

B. Riveros← R. Petretta

46'

M. Sulejmani← G. Gaudino

46'

M. Elia← M. Ngamaleu

46'

J. Lefort← S. Janko

48'

Arthur Cabral↳ V. Stocker

50'

M. Aebischer

51'

J. Mvula Lotomba

55'

E. Comert

61'

C. Martins← C. Zesiger

61'

Arthur Cabral↳ V. Stocker

66'

J. Nsamé

69'

J. van der Werff← T. Xhaka

70'

C. Fassnacht↳ M. Aebischer

72'

D. Oberlin← A. Pululu

76'

S. Widmer

79'

M. Spielmann← C. Fassnacht

81'

M. Aebischer

81'

M. Aebischer

83'

K. Ademi← Arthur Cabral

83'

Ramires← B. Riveros

90+4'

J. Omlin

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FCBSC

Overview

44%Possession56%

14Total Shots15

6Corners9

9Fouls23

Shots

14Total Shots15

7On Target4

6Off Target8

1Blocked3

11Inside Box11

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

336Total Passes418

248Accurate Passes330

74%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

9Fouls23

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Super League: FC Basel 1893 3–2 BSC Young Boys

FC Basel 1893 beat BSC Young Boys 3-2 in Super League on July 11, 2020.

Goals: S. Campo (13'), Arthur Cabral (48', 61'), J. Nsamé (66'), C. Fassnacht (70').

BSC Young Boys controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at St. Jakob-Park in Basel.

FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys — Super League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super League: FC Basel 1893 3–2 BSC Young Boys