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FC Astana vs Zhetysu — Cup 2019

FC Astana
FC Astana
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Zhetysu
Zhetysu
8/7/2022CupCup · Group Stage - 4Astana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

FC Astana55%
×Draw23%
Zhetysu22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astana
1.82
Zhetysu
1.06

FC Astana creates 72% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

FC Astana
2.07
Zhetysu
0.75

allows per match

FC Astana
1.36
Zhetysu
1.58

finishing

FC Astana+0.00on par
Zhetysu+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astana ↓

Zhetysu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FC Astana or draw
78%
FC Astana or Zhetysu
77%
Draw or Zhetysu
45%

Winning margin

FC Astana wins by 2+
31%
Zhetysu wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Astana 1+ goals
84%
FC Astana 2+ goals
54%
FC Astana 3+ goals
27%
Zhetysu 1+ goals
65%
Zhetysu 2+ goals
29%
Zhetysu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Astana (draw refunded)
71%
Zhetysu (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astana at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

Zhetysu away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astana attack 2.07 + Zhetysu defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.82

Zhetysu attack 0.75 + FC Astana defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

FC Astana scores more
55%
level
23%
Zhetysu scores more
22%

FC Astana at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: FC Astana 2–2 Zhetysu

FC Astana and Zhetysu drew 2-2 in Cup on August 7, 2022.

The match was played at Astana Arena in Nur-Sultan.