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FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC — K League 1 2025

FC Anyang
FC Anyang
Preview
10:30
Gwangju FC
Gwangju FC
7/19/2026K League 1K League 1 · Round 18Anyang Stadium
Big match
50%
FC Anyang
model favours
50%26%24%

FC Anyang have scored in 8 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

FC Anyang50%
×Draw26%
Gwangju FC24%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Anyang
1.52
Gwangju FC
0.96

FC Anyang creates 58% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

creates per match

FC Anyang
1.41
Gwangju FC
0.70

allows per match

FC Anyang
1.22
Gwangju FC
1.63

finishing

FC Anyang+0.00on par
Gwangju FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Anyang ↓

Gwangju FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FC Anyang or draw
76%
FC Anyang or Gwangju FC
74%
Draw or Gwangju FC
50%

Winning margin

FC Anyang wins by 2+
26%
Gwangju FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Anyang 1+ goals
78%
FC Anyang 2+ goals
45%
FC Anyang 3+ goals
20%
Gwangju FC 1+ goals
62%
Gwangju FC 2+ goals
25%
Gwangju FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Anyang (draw refunded)
68%
Gwangju FC (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Anyang at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Gwangju FC away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.63 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Anyang attack 1.41 + Gwangju FC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.52

Gwangju FC attack 0.70 + FC Anyang defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FC Anyang scores more
50%
level
26%
Gwangju FC scores more
24%

FC Anyang at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FC Anyang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FC Anyang score first in only 33% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Anyang
WLWDD
FC
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FC Anyang vs Gwangju FC — Match Preview

FC Anyang face Gwangju FC on July 19, 2026 in this K League 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FC Anyang host Gwangju FC at Anyang Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.