FC Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax FC — Challenge League 2026
Challenge League · Round 5
Neuchatel Xamax FC score first in only 10% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 34+ matches
FC Aarau54%
Neuchatel Xamax FC24%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FC Aarau creates 61% more chances
Season form · 62 home / 34 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over61
- Under39
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FC Aarau ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FC Aarau at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.35 · 62 matches
Neuchatel Xamax FC away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FC Aarau attack 1.92 + Neuchatel Xamax FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96
Neuchatel Xamax FC attack 1.09 + FC Aarau defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 54%?"
FC Aarau at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 54% does not mean "FC Aarau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- 90% of Neuchatel Xamax FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
- Neuchatel Xamax FC have scored in 7 games running
- FC Aarau have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FC Aarau host Neuchatel Xamax FC on Friday, 28 August 2026 at 18:15. The match is part of the Challenge League 2026/2027 season.
FC Aarau face Neuchatel Xamax FC (Challenge League)
Challenge League returns with FC Aarau hosting Neuchatel Xamax FC. Match starts August 28, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.