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FBK Karlstad vs GIF Sundsvall — Svenska Cupen 2019

FBK Karlstad
FBK Karlstad
Preview
16:30
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
8/19/2026Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · Final
51%
GIF Sundsvall
model favours
29%20%51%

GIF Sundsvall score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–2
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
74%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FBK Karlstad29%
×Draw20%
GIF Sundsvall51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBK Karlstad
1.72
GIF Sundsvall
2.34

GIF Sundsvall creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 17 away

creates per match

FBK Karlstad
1.25
GIF Sundsvall
1.18

allows per match

FBK Karlstad
3.50
GIF Sundsvall
2.18

finishing

FBK Karlstad+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBK Karlstad ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

FBK Karlstad or draw
49%
FBK Karlstad or GIF Sundsvall
80%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
71%

Winning margin

FBK Karlstad wins by 2+
14%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

FBK Karlstad 1+ goals
82%
FBK Karlstad 2+ goals
51%
FBK Karlstad 3+ goals
25%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
90%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
67%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

FBK Karlstad (draw refunded)
36%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBK Karlstad at home — creates 1.25, concedes 3.50 · 4 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBK Karlstad attack 1.25 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.72

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.18 + FBK Karlstad defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

FBK Karlstad scores more
29%
level
20%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
51%

GIF Sundsvall at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FBK Karlstad score first in only 20% of matches
  • Both teams score in 75% of GIF Sundsvall’s matches
  • 70% of FBK Karlstad’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • FBK Karlstad and GIF Sundsvall have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Karlstad
LWLWL
Sundsvall
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FBK Karlstad vs GIF Sundsvall — Match Preview

FBK Karlstad face GIF Sundsvall on August 19, 2026 in this Svenska Cupen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.