FBC Melgar vs UTC Cajamarca — Primera División 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 8+ matches
FBC Melgar51%
UTC Cajamarca25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FBC Melgar creates 55% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FBC Melgar ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.20 · 8 matches
UTC Cajamarca away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.44 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FBC Melgar attack 1.78 + UTC Cajamarca defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.61
UTC Cajamarca attack 0.89 + FBC Melgar defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.04
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
FBC Melgar at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
Real Garcilaso
Deportivo MunicipalFBC Melgar
Union Comercio
Deportivo Binacional
Sport Boys
Sport Huancayo
Universitario
Sport Rosario
Academia Cantolao
U. San Martin
Ayacucho FC
Comerciantes UnidosFBC MelgarAlianza LimaAyacucho FCUniversitarioSporting CristalUnion ComercioU. San MartinReal GarcilasoAcademia CantolaoDeportivo MunicipalSport BoysComerciantes UnidosDeportivo BinacionalSport HuancayoSport RosarioIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FBC Melgar host UTC Cajamarca on Sunday, 16 August 2020 at 20:00. The match is part of the Primera División 2018/2019 season.
FBC Melgar face UTC Cajamarca (Primera División)
Primera División returns with FBC Melgar hosting UTC Cajamarca. Match starts August 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
FBC Melgar host UTC Cajamarca at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.