FBC Melgar 1–3 Sport Huancayo: Result & Stats

FBC Melgar

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Sport Huancayo

C. Bordacahar 83'

C. Escobar 90+7'

R. Huaccha 84'

L. Benítes 66'

8/27/2023

Primera División · Clausura - 11Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

FBC Melgar58%

×Draw23%

Sport Huancayo20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FBC MelgarExpected goals in this matchSport Huancayo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

0.98

FBC Melgar

1.85

Sport Huancayo

0.98

FBC Melgar creates 89% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 12 away

1.83

creates per match

0.89

1.07

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

FBC Melgar

1.83

Sport Huancayo

0.89

allows per match

FBC Melgar

1.07

Sport Huancayo

1.86

+0.37scores more than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.37scores more

Sport Huancayo-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Sport Huancayo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw

80%

FBC Melgar or Sport Huancayo

77%

Draw or Sport Huancayo

42%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+

33%

Sport Huancayo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals

84%

FBC Melgar 2+ goals

55%

FBC Melgar 3+ goals

28%

Sport Huancayo 1+ goals

62%

Sport Huancayo 2+ goals

26%

Sport Huancayo 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)

75%

Sport Huancayo (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Sport Huancayo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.86 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.83 + Sport Huancayo defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.85

Sport Huancayo attack 0.89 + FBC Melgar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

FBC Melgar scores more

58%

level

23%

Sport Huancayo scores more

20%

FBC Melgar at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Benítes

Sport Huancayo · M

8.0

Match Events

12'

Pablo LavandeiraPenalty cancelled

37'

Jean Pierre Archimbaud

40'

Ray Gómez

46'

L. Benítes← C. Ross

55'

Bernardo Cuesta

56'

Jean Pierre Archimbaud

56'

Jean Pierre Archimbaud

59'

C. Escobar← R. Gómez

61'

M. Lazo← K. Cabrera

63'

Ricardo Salcedo

66'

L. Benítes↳ C. Escobar

71'

C. Bordacahar← A. Arias

71'

T. Martínez← P. Lavandeira

82'

Á. Pérez← H. Ángeles

83'

C. Bordacahar↳ T. Martínez

84'

R. Huaccha↳ M. Huamán

86'

Ronal HuacchaGoal confirmed

90+6'

Alfredo Rojas

90+2'

B. Portugal← H. Orzán

90'

Alfredo Rojas← R. Huaccha

90+7'

C. Escobar↳ L. Benítes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FBCSport

Overview

54%Possession46%

18Total Shots6

1.28Expected Goals (xG)1.18

9Corners3

9Fouls12

Shots

18Total Shots6

7On Target3

7Off Target0

4Blocked3

14Inside Box4

4Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

388Total Passes341

329Accurate Passes268

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls12

3Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

4Offsides1

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Sport Huancayo

Sport Huancayo beat FBC Melgar 3-1 in Primera División on August 27, 2023.

Goals: L. Benítes (66'), C. Bordacahar (83'), R. Huaccha (84'), C. Escobar (90+7').

FBC Melgar controlled possession (54%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustín in Arequipa.

FBC Melgar vs Sport Huancayo — Primera División 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Sport Huancayo