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FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Municipal — Primera División 2018

FBC Melgar
FBC Melgar
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Deportivo Municipal
Deportivo Municipal
11/30/2020Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Clausura - 9Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

FBC Melgar54%
×Draw23%
Deportivo Municipal23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FBC Melgar
1.77
Deportivo Municipal
1.06

FBC Melgar creates 67% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 102 away

creates per match

FBC Melgar
1.82
Deportivo Municipal
1.25

allows per match

FBC Melgar
0.88
Deportivo Municipal
1.73

finishing

FBC Melgar+0.00on par
Deportivo Municipal+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FBC Melgar ↓

Deportivo Municipal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FBC Melgar or draw
77%
FBC Melgar or Deportivo Municipal
77%
Draw or Deportivo Municipal
46%

Winning margin

FBC Melgar wins by 2+
30%
Deportivo Municipal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FBC Melgar 1+ goals
83%
FBC Melgar 2+ goals
53%
FBC Melgar 3+ goals
26%
Deportivo Municipal 1+ goals
65%
Deportivo Municipal 2+ goals
29%
Deportivo Municipal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FBC Melgar (draw refunded)
70%
Deportivo Municipal (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FBC Melgar at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.88 · 148 matches

Deportivo Municipal away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.73 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FBC Melgar attack 1.82 + Deportivo Municipal defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.77

Deportivo Municipal attack 1.25 + FBC Melgar defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FBC Melgar scores more
54%
level
23%
Deportivo Municipal scores more
23%

FBC Melgar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FBC Melgar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FBC Melgar vs Deportivo Municipal

FBC Melgar beat Deportivo Municipal 3-2 in Primera División on November 30, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Alberto Gallardo in Lima.