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FAS vs Santa Tecla — Primera Division 2019

FAS
FAS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Santa Tecla
Santa Tecla
11/27/2019Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 21Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

FAS52%
×Draw25%
Santa Tecla23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAS
1.58
Santa Tecla
0.97

FAS creates 63% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 97 away

creates per match

FAS
1.60
Santa Tecla
0.95

allows per match

FAS
0.99
Santa Tecla
1.55

finishing

FAS+0.00on par
Santa Tecla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAS ↓

Santa Tecla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FAS or draw
77%
FAS or Santa Tecla
75%
Draw or Santa Tecla
48%

Winning margin

FAS wins by 2+
27%
Santa Tecla wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FAS 1+ goals
79%
FAS 2+ goals
47%
FAS 3+ goals
21%
Santa Tecla 1+ goals
62%
Santa Tecla 2+ goals
25%
Santa Tecla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FAS (draw refunded)
69%
Santa Tecla (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAS at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 155 matches

Santa Tecla away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAS attack 1.60 + Santa Tecla defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Santa Tecla attack 0.95 + FAS defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FAS scores more
52%
level
25%
Santa Tecla scores more
23%

FAS at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAS vs Santa Tecla

FAS beat Santa Tecla 2-1 in Primera Division on November 27, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño in Santa Ana.