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FAS vs Jocoro — Primera Division 2019

FAS
FAS
FT
4 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Jocoro
Jocoro
8/4/2021Primera DivisionPrimera Division · Apertura - 1st Phase - 3Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

FAS54%
×Draw25%
Jocoro21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAS
1.61
Jocoro
0.90

FAS creates 79% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 103 away

creates per match

FAS
1.60
Jocoro
0.80

allows per match

FAS
0.99
Jocoro
1.63

finishing

FAS+0.00on par
Jocoro+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAS ↓

Jocoro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

FAS or draw
79%
FAS or Jocoro
75%
Draw or Jocoro
46%

Winning margin

FAS wins by 2+
29%
Jocoro wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FAS 1+ goals
80%
FAS 2+ goals
48%
FAS 3+ goals
22%
Jocoro 1+ goals
59%
Jocoro 2+ goals
23%
Jocoro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FAS (draw refunded)
72%
Jocoro (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAS at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.99 · 155 matches

Jocoro away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.63 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAS attack 1.60 + Jocoro defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Jocoro attack 0.80 + FAS defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

FAS scores more
54%
level
25%
Jocoro scores more
21%

FAS at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "FAS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Division: FAS 4–1 Jocoro

FAS beat Jocoro 4-1 in Primera Division on August 4, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Óscar Alberto Quiteño in Santa Ana.