Farul Constanţa W 1–0 Olimpia Cluj W

Farul Constanţa W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Olimpia Cluj W

4/13/2025

Liga 1 Feminin · Championship Round - 6Stadionul Central

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Farul Constanţa W45%

×Draw20%

Olimpia Cluj W34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Farul Constanţa WExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Cluj W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.93

Farul Constanţa W

2.23

Olimpia Cluj W

1.93

Farul Constanţa W creates 16% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 70 away

3.31

creates per match

3.27

0.59

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Farul Constanţa W

3.31

Olimpia Cluj W

3.27

allows per match

Farul Constanţa W

0.59

Olimpia Cluj W

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par

Olimpia Cluj W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanţa W ↓

Olimpia Cluj W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Farul Constanţa W or draw

66%

Farul Constanţa W or Olimpia Cluj W

80%

Draw or Olimpia Cluj W

55%

Winning margin

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+

26%

Olimpia Cluj W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals

89%

Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals

65%

Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals

38%

Olimpia Cluj W 1+ goals

85%

Olimpia Cluj W 2+ goals

57%

Olimpia Cluj W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)

57%

Olimpia Cluj W (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanţa W at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.59 · 39 matches

Olimpia Cluj W away — creates 3.27, concedes 1.16 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.31 + Olimpia Cluj W defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 2.23

Olimpia Cluj W attack 3.27 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Farul Constanţa W scores more

45%

level

20%

Olimpia Cluj W scores more

34%

Farul Constanţa W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff