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Farnborough vs Torquay — League #51 2026

Farnborough
Farnborough
Preview
14:00
Torquay
Torquay
4/3/2027League #51League #51 · National League South - 43
Big match
40%
Farnborough
model favours
40%24%36%

Farnborough score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Farnborough40%
×Draw24%
Torquay36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farnborough
1.57
Torquay
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 16 away

creates per match

Farnborough
1.90
Torquay
1.31

allows per match

Farnborough
1.67
Torquay
1.25

finishing

Farnborough+0.00on par
Torquay+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farnborough ↓

Torquay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Farnborough or draw
64%
Farnborough or Torquay
76%
Draw or Torquay
60%

Winning margin

Farnborough wins by 2+
20%
Torquay wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Farnborough 1+ goals
79%
Farnborough 2+ goals
46%
Farnborough 3+ goals
21%
Torquay 1+ goals
77%
Torquay 2+ goals
44%
Torquay 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Farnborough (draw refunded)
52%
Torquay (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farnborough at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

Torquay away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farnborough attack 1.90 + Torquay defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.57

Torquay attack 1.31 + Farnborough defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Farnborough scores more
40%
level
24%
Torquay scores more
36%

Farnborough at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Farnborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Farnborough have scored in 13 games running
  • 77% of Farnborough’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Farnborough 2 vs Torquay 3

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Farnborough
LLWWW
Torquay
LWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Farnborough vs Torquay — Match Preview

Farnborough face Torquay on April 3, 2027 in this League #51 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.