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Farense vs Torreense — Segunda Liga 2018

Farense
Farense
Preview
15:00
Torreense
Torreense
8/9/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 1
42%
Farense
model favours
42%28%30%

Torreense have won 3 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Farense42%
×Draw28%
Torreense30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farense
1.27
Torreense
1.04

Farense creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 68 away

creates per match

Farense
1.38
Torreense
1.15

allows per match

Farense
0.94
Torreense
1.16

finishing

Farense+0.00on par
Torreense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Torreense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Farense or draw
70%
Farense or Torreense
72%
Draw or Torreense
58%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+
19%
Torreense wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals
72%
Farense 2+ goals
36%
Farense 3+ goals
14%
Torreense 1+ goals
65%
Torreense 2+ goals
28%
Torreense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)
58%
Torreense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.94 · 77 matches

Torreense away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.38 + Torreense defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.27

Torreense attack 1.15 + Farense defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Farense scores more
42%
level
28%
Torreense scores more
30%

Farense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Farense
Direct / counter-attacking
Torreense
Balanced
42%Possession50%
69%Pass accuracy74%
8.3ShotsBiggest gap10.7
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FarenseTorreense

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Farense
0
Draws
3
Torreense
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
1–20–30–12–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Farense
DDWLD
Torreense
DWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Farense vs Torreense — Match Preview

Farense face Torreense on August 9, 2026 in this Segunda Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.