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FarDu vs Kattaqurgon — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
Preview
13:00
Kattaqurgon
Kattaqurgon
10/12/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 22
35%
FarDu
model favours
35%30%35%
1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FarDu35%
×Draw30%
Kattaqurgon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
1.06
Kattaqurgon
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
Kattaqurgon
1.00

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
Kattaqurgon
0.50

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
Kattaqurgon+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

Kattaqurgon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
65%
FarDu or Kattaqurgon
70%
Draw or Kattaqurgon
65%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
14%
Kattaqurgon wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
65%
FarDu 2+ goals
29%
FarDu 3+ goals
9%
Kattaqurgon 1+ goals
66%
Kattaqurgon 2+ goals
29%
Kattaqurgon 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
50%
Kattaqurgon (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

Kattaqurgon away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + Kattaqurgon defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kattaqurgon attack 1.00 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

FarDu scores more
35%
level
30%
Kattaqurgon scores more
35%

FarDu at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FarDu
LLWDD
Kattaqurgon
LWDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FarDu host Kattaqurgon

October 12, 2026: FarDu take on Kattaqurgon in Pro League A. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.