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FarDu vs BuxDu — Pro League A 2026

FarDu
FarDu
Preview
13:00
BuxDu
BuxDu
9/22/2026Pro League APro League A · Round 20
71%
FarDu
model favours
71%19%9%
2–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
38%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FarDu71%
×Draw19%
BuxDu9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FarDu
2.01
BuxDu
0.57

FarDu creates 253% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

FarDu
1.62
BuxDu
0.00

allows per match

FarDu
1.15
BuxDu
2.40

finishing

FarDu+0.00on par
BuxDu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FarDu ↓

BuxDu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

FarDu or draw
91%
FarDu or BuxDu
81%
Draw or BuxDu
29%

Winning margin

FarDu wins by 2+
45%
BuxDu wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

FarDu 1+ goals
87%
FarDu 2+ goals
59%
FarDu 3+ goals
32%
BuxDu 1+ goals
43%
BuxDu 2+ goals
11%
BuxDu 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

FarDu (draw refunded)
88%
BuxDu (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FarDu at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.15 · 13 matches

BuxDu away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FarDu attack 1.62 + BuxDu defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

BuxDu attack 0.00 + FarDu defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

FarDu scores more
71%
level
19%
BuxDu scores more
9%

FarDu at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "FarDu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
FarDu
LLWDD
BuxDu
WWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FarDu vs BuxDu — Match Preview

FarDu face BuxDu on September 22, 2026 in this Pro League A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.