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FAR Rabat vs Wydad AC — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Wydad AC
Wydad AC
11/28/2023Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 10Stade Municipal de Kénitra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

FAR Rabat41%
×Draw28%
Wydad AC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.27
Wydad AC
1.08

FAR Rabat creates 18% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 117 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.58
Wydad AC
1.31

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.85
Wydad AC
0.97

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Wydad AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
69%
FAR Rabat or Wydad AC
72%
Draw or Wydad AC
59%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
18%
Wydad AC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
72%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
36%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
14%
Wydad AC 1+ goals
66%
Wydad AC 2+ goals
29%
Wydad AC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
56%
Wydad AC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.58, concedes 0.85 · 118 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.31, concedes 0.97 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.58 + Wydad AC defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wydad AC attack 1.31 + FAR Rabat defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
41%
level
28%
Wydad AC scores more
31%

FAR Rabat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs Wydad AC

FAR Rabat beat Wydad AC 3-1 in Botola Pro on November 28, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Kénitra in Kénitra.