FAR Rabat 1–1 Wydad AC: Result & Stats | Botola Pro

FAR Rabat

FT

1 – 1

Wydad AC

M. Berrahma 90' (pen)

W. Jebor 12' (pen)

5/9/2019

Botola Pro · Round 26Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah (Rabat)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 115+ matches

FAR Rabat41%

×Draw28%

Wydad AC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchWydad AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.07

FAR Rabat

1.27

Wydad AC

1.07

FAR Rabat creates 19% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 115 away

1.57

creates per match

1.29

0.85

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.57

Wydad AC

1.29

allows per match

FAR Rabat

0.85

Wydad AC

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Wydad AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Wydad AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

69%

FAR Rabat or Wydad AC

72%

Draw or Wydad AC

59%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

18%

Wydad AC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

72%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

36%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

14%

Wydad AC 1+ goals

66%

Wydad AC 2+ goals

29%

Wydad AC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

57%

Wydad AC (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.85 · 117 matches

Wydad AC away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.96 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.57 + Wydad AC defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.27

Wydad AC attack 1.29 + FAR Rabat defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

41%

level

28%

Wydad AC scores more

31%

FAR Rabat at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

W. JeborPenalty

45'

B. Nakach

52'

M. Berrahma

52'

A. Mouaoui

65'

B. Aouk

78'

I. Bezghoudi

79'

A. Noussir

83'

A. Tagnaouti

90'

I. El Haddad

90'

M. BerrahmaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff