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FAR Rabat vs Maghreb Fès — Botola Pro 2025

FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Maghreb Fès
Maghreb Fès
6/23/2022Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 27Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

FAR Rabat45%
×Draw28%
Maghreb Fès27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FAR Rabat
1.31
Maghreb Fès
0.93

FAR Rabat creates 41% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 90 away

creates per match

FAR Rabat
1.60
Maghreb Fès
0.99

allows per match

FAR Rabat
0.87
Maghreb Fès
1.01

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par
Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Maghreb Fès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw
73%
FAR Rabat or Maghreb Fès
72%
Draw or Maghreb Fès
55%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+
21%
Maghreb Fès wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals
73%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
38%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
14%
Maghreb Fès 1+ goals
61%
Maghreb Fès 2+ goals
24%
Maghreb Fès 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
63%
Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 115 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.60 + Maghreb Fès defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.31

Maghreb Fès attack 0.99 + FAR Rabat defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

FAR Rabat scores more
45%
level
28%
Maghreb Fès scores more
27%

FAR Rabat at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FAR Rabat vs Maghreb Fès

FAR Rabat and Maghreb Fès drew 0-0 in Botola Pro on June 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.