FAR Rabat 0–2 Maghreb Fès: Result & Stats | Cup

FAR Rabat

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Maghreb Fès

A. Lakhal 87'

A. Ajaraie 7'

3/13/2022

Cup · Round of 32Stade Prince Moulay Abdallah

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FAR Rabat37%

×Draw29%

Maghreb Fès34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FAR RabatExpected goals in this matchMaghreb Fès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.10

FAR Rabat

1.16

Maghreb Fès

1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.71

creates per match

1.20

1.00

allows per match

0.60

creates per match

FAR Rabat

1.71

Maghreb Fès

1.20

allows per match

FAR Rabat

1.00

Maghreb Fès

0.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Maghreb Fès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FAR Rabat ↓

Maghreb Fès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

FAR Rabat or draw

66%

FAR Rabat or Maghreb Fès

71%

Draw or Maghreb Fès

63%

Winning margin

FAR Rabat wins by 2+

15%

Maghreb Fès wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

FAR Rabat 1+ goals

69%

FAR Rabat 2+ goals

32%

FAR Rabat 3+ goals

11%

Maghreb Fès 1+ goals

67%

Maghreb Fès 2+ goals

30%

Maghreb Fès 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

FAR Rabat (draw refunded)

52%

Maghreb Fès (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FAR Rabat at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Maghreb Fès away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FAR Rabat attack 1.71 + Maghreb Fès defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.16

Maghreb Fès attack 1.20 + FAR Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

FAR Rabat scores more

37%

level

29%

Maghreb Fès scores more

34%

FAR Rabat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Ajaraie

87'

A. Lakhal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff