Famalicao 3–1 GIL Vicente: Result & Stats

Famalicao

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

GIL Vicente

11/4/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 10Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Famalicao43%

×Draw27%

GIL Vicente30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FamalicaoExpected goals in this matchGIL Vicente

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.07

Famalicao

1.35

GIL Vicente

1.07

Famalicao creates 26% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

1.51

creates per match

1.28

0.87

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Famalicao

1.51

GIL Vicente

1.28

allows per match

Famalicao

0.87

GIL Vicente

1.19

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Famalicao+0.16scores more

GIL Vicente-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

GIL Vicente →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw

70%

Famalicao or GIL Vicente

73%

Draw or GIL Vicente

57%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+

20%

GIL Vicente wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals

74%

Famalicao 2+ goals

39%

Famalicao 3+ goals

15%

GIL Vicente 1+ goals

66%

GIL Vicente 2+ goals

29%

GIL Vicente 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)

59%

GIL Vicente (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 18 matches

GIL Vicente away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.51 + GIL Vicente defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

GIL Vicente attack 1.28 + Famalicao defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Famalicao scores more

43%

level

27%

GIL Vicente scores more

30%

Famalicao at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff