Famalicao 1–1 Estoril: Result & Stats

Famalicao

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Estoril

12/17/2023

Primeira Liga · Round 14Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Famalicao53%

×Draw25%

Estoril22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FamalicaoExpected goals in this matchEstoril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.98

Famalicao

1.65

Estoril

0.98

Famalicao creates 68% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 18 away

1.51

creates per match

1.08

0.87

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Famalicao

1.51

Estoril

1.08

allows per match

Famalicao

0.87

Estoril

1.78

+0.16scores more than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

Famalicao+0.16scores more

Estoril+0.25scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Famalicao ↓

Estoril →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Famalicao or draw

78%

Famalicao or Estoril

75%

Draw or Estoril

47%

Winning margin

Famalicao wins by 2+

28%

Estoril wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Famalicao 1+ goals

81%

Famalicao 2+ goals

49%

Famalicao 3+ goals

23%

Estoril 1+ goals

62%

Estoril 2+ goals

26%

Estoril 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Famalicao (draw refunded)

70%

Estoril (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Famalicao at home — creates 1.51, concedes 0.87 · 18 matches

Estoril away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.78 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Famalicao attack 1.51 + Estoril defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.65

Estoril attack 1.08 + Famalicao defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Famalicao scores more

53%

level

25%

Estoril scores more

22%

Famalicao at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Famalicao 1–1 Estoril

Famalicao and Estoril drew 1-1 in Primeira Liga on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão.

Famalicao vs Estoril — Primeira Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Primeira Liga: Famalicao 1–1 Estoril