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Falkirk vs Kilmarnock — League Cup 2018

Falkirk
Falkirk
FT
3 – 0
Kilmarnock
Kilmarnock
10/6/2020League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Falkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Falkirk40%
×Draw26%
Kilmarnock35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkirk
1.40
Kilmarnock
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 14 away

creates per match

Falkirk
1.94
Kilmarnock
1.86

allows per match

Falkirk
0.72
Kilmarnock
0.86

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par
Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Kilmarnock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw
65%
Falkirk or Kilmarnock
74%
Draw or Kilmarnock
60%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+
18%
Kilmarnock wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals
75%
Falkirk 2+ goals
41%
Falkirk 3+ goals
17%
Kilmarnock 1+ goals
72%
Kilmarnock 2+ goals
37%
Kilmarnock 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)
53%
Kilmarnock (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.86, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.94 + Kilmarnock defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.40

Kilmarnock attack 1.86 + Falkirk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Falkirk scores more
40%
level
26%
Kilmarnock scores more
35%

Falkirk at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Falkirk vs Kilmarnock

Falkirk beat Kilmarnock 3-0 in League Cup on October 6, 2020.

The match was played at Falkirk Community Stadium in Falkirk.