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Falkirk vs East Fife — League #183 2026

Falkirk
Falkirk
PST
15:00
East Fife
East Fife
3/20/2021League #183League #183 · Round 20Falkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Falkirk71%
×Draw17%
East Fife12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkirk
2.37
East Fife
0.85

Falkirk creates 179% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Falkirk
3.15
East Fife
0.93

allows per match

Falkirk
0.77
East Fife
1.59

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par
East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

East Fife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw
88%
Falkirk or East Fife
83%
Draw or East Fife
29%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+
48%
East Fife wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals
91%
Falkirk 2+ goals
68%
Falkirk 3+ goals
42%
East Fife 1+ goals
57%
East Fife 2+ goals
21%
East Fife 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)
86%
East Fife (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 3.15, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.59 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 3.15 + East Fife defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.37

East Fife attack 0.93 + Falkirk defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Falkirk scores more
71%
level
17%
East Fife scores more
12%

Falkirk at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Falkirk vs East Fife — Match Preview

Falkirk face East Fife on March 20, 2021 in this League #183 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Falkirk host East Fife at Falkirk Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.