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Falkirk vs Dundee Utd — League Cup 2018

Falkirk
Falkirk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Dundee Utd
Dundee Utd
7/25/2023League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 6Falkirk Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Falkirk43%
×Draw26%
Dundee Utd31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Falkirk
1.47
Dundee Utd
1.21

Falkirk creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Falkirk
1.94
Dundee Utd
1.71

allows per match

Falkirk
0.72
Dundee Utd
1.00

finishing

Falkirk+0.00on par
Dundee Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Falkirk ↓

Dundee Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Falkirk or draw
69%
Falkirk or Dundee Utd
74%
Draw or Dundee Utd
57%

Winning margin

Falkirk wins by 2+
21%
Dundee Utd wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Falkirk 1+ goals
77%
Falkirk 2+ goals
43%
Falkirk 3+ goals
18%
Dundee Utd 1+ goals
70%
Dundee Utd 2+ goals
34%
Dundee Utd 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Falkirk (draw refunded)
58%
Dundee Utd (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Falkirk at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

Dundee Utd away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Falkirk attack 1.94 + Dundee Utd defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Dundee Utd attack 1.71 + Falkirk defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Falkirk scores more
43%
level
26%
Dundee Utd scores more
31%

Falkirk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Falkirk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Falkirk 0–1 Dundee Utd

Dundee Utd beat Falkirk 1-0 in League Cup on July 25, 2023.

The match was played at Falkirk Community Stadium in Falkirk.