Fakel vs Dinamo Makhachkala — Premier League 2018
Dinamo Makhachkala score first in only 24% of matches
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 31+ matches
Fakel46%
Dinamo Makhachkala23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Fakel creates 57% more chances
Season form · 46 home / 31 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under70
- Over30
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fakel ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fakel at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.96 · 46 matches
Dinamo Makhachkala away — creates 0.52, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fakel attack 0.89 + Dinamo Makhachkala defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.16
Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.52 + Fakel defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.74
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Fakel at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Fakel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- Dinamo Makhachkala fall short of their xG (0.4 vs 0.9 expected)
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Style Matchup
Contrasting stylesPlaying styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Lokomotiv Moscow
Krasnodar
CSKA Moscow
Spartak Moscow
Arsenal Tula
Orenburg
Akhmat Grozny
FC Rostov
Ural
Rubin
Dinamo Moscow
Krylya Sovetov
FC UFA
Anzhi
EniseyIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fakel host Dinamo Makhachkala on Saturday, 25 July 2026 at 15:30. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Fakel face Dinamo Makhachkala (Premier League)
Premier League returns with Fakel hosting Dinamo Makhachkala. Match starts July 25, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
Fakel host Dinamo Makhachkala at Fakel Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.