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Fakel Voronezh vs Enisey — First League 2018

Fakel Voronezh
Fakel Voronezh
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Enisey
Enisey
9/15/2021First LeagueFirst League · Round 11Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 89+ matches

Fakel Voronezh46%
×Draw29%
Enisey25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fakel Voronezh
1.29
Enisey
0.88

Fakel Voronezh creates 47% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 126 away

creates per match

Fakel Voronezh
1.17
Enisey
1.03

allows per match

Fakel Voronezh
0.73
Enisey
1.42

finishing

Fakel Voronezh+0.00on par
Enisey+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fakel Voronezh ↓

Enisey →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Fakel Voronezh or draw
75%
Fakel Voronezh or Enisey
71%
Draw or Enisey
54%

Winning margin

Fakel Voronezh wins by 2+
21%
Enisey wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Fakel Voronezh 1+ goals
72%
Fakel Voronezh 2+ goals
37%
Fakel Voronezh 3+ goals
14%
Enisey 1+ goals
59%
Enisey 2+ goals
22%
Enisey 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Fakel Voronezh (draw refunded)
64%
Enisey (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fakel Voronezh at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.73 · 89 matches

Enisey away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.42 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fakel Voronezh attack 1.17 + Enisey defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.29

Enisey attack 1.03 + Fakel Voronezh defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fakel Voronezh scores more
46%
level
29%
Enisey scores more
25%

Fakel Voronezh at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fakel Voronezh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Fakel Voronezh 3–1 Enisey

Fakel Voronezh beat Enisey 3-1 in First League on September 15, 2021.

The match was played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Voronezh.