Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Arman Gohar: Result & Stats

Fajr Sepasi

FT

0 – 0

Arman Gohar

9/21/2019

Azadegan League · Round 6Shahid Dastgheib Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Fajr Sepasi56%

×Draw26%

Arman Gohar17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fajr SepasiExpected goals in this matchArman Gohar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.69

Fajr Sepasi

1.48

Arman Gohar

0.69

Fajr Sepasi creates 114% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 67 away

1.50

creates per match

0.87

0.50

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Fajr Sepasi

1.50

Arman Gohar

0.87

allows per match

Fajr Sepasi

0.50

Arman Gohar

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fajr Sepasi ↓

Arman Gohar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Fajr Sepasi or draw

83%

Fajr Sepasi or Arman Gohar

74%

Draw or Arman Gohar

44%

Winning margin

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

29%

Arman Gohar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

77%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

43%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

19%

Arman Gohar 1+ goals

50%

Arman Gohar 2+ goals

15%

Arman Gohar 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

76%

Arman Gohar (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fajr Sepasi at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.50 · 86 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.50 + Arman Gohar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.48

Arman Gohar attack 0.87 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Fajr Sepasi scores more

56%

level

26%

Arman Gohar scores more

17%

Fajr Sepasi at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Fajr Sepasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff