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Fagiano Okayama vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Preview
10:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
11/25/2026J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 16City Light Stadium
Big match
46%
Fagiano Okayama
model favours
46%25%29%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Fagiano Okayama46%
×Draw25%
Shimizu S-pulse29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.56
Shimizu S-pulse
1.19

Fagiano Okayama creates 31% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.64
Shimizu S-pulse
0.98

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.39
Shimizu S-pulse
1.48

finishing

Fagiano Okayama-0.44scores less
Shimizu S-pulse-0.26scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
71%
Fagiano Okayama or Shimizu S-pulse
75%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
54%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
23%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
79%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
46%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
21%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
70%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
33%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
61%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.48 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.64 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.56

Shimizu S-pulse attack 0.98 + Fagiano Okayama defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
46%
level
25%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
29%

Fagiano Okayama at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fagiano Okayama score first in only 33% of matches
  • Fagiano Okayama raise their game against the top half — 33% wins vs the upper half, only 27% vs the lower
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fagiano Okayama
Direct / counter-attacking
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
40%Possession50%
71%Pass accuracy79%
15.1Shots11.9
1.57xGBiggest gap1.17
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fagiano OkayamaShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Fagiano Okayama
2
Draws
1
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 2.6BTTS: 80%
2–01–12–11–11–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Okayama
LWDLW
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Fagiano Okayama host Shimizu S-pulse

November 25, 2026: Fagiano Okayama take on Shimizu S-pulse in J1 League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Fagiano Okayama host Shimizu S-pulse at City Light Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.