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Fagiano Okayama vs Kanazawa — J2 League 2018

Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kanazawa
Kanazawa
2/23/2020J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 1City Light Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Fagiano Okayama43%
×Draw27%
Kanazawa30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fagiano Okayama
1.38
Kanazawa
1.10

Fagiano Okayama creates 25% more chances

Season form · 147 home / 126 away

creates per match

Fagiano Okayama
1.22
Kanazawa
1.25

allows per match

Fagiano Okayama
0.96
Kanazawa
1.54

finishing

Fagiano Okayama+0.00on par
Kanazawa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fagiano Okayama ↓

Kanazawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fagiano Okayama or draw
70%
Fagiano Okayama or Kanazawa
73%
Draw or Kanazawa
57%

Winning margin

Fagiano Okayama wins by 2+
20%
Kanazawa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fagiano Okayama 1+ goals
75%
Fagiano Okayama 2+ goals
40%
Fagiano Okayama 3+ goals
16%
Kanazawa 1+ goals
67%
Kanazawa 2+ goals
30%
Kanazawa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fagiano Okayama (draw refunded)
59%
Kanazawa (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fagiano Okayama at home — creates 1.22, concedes 0.96 · 147 matches

Kanazawa away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.54 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fagiano Okayama attack 1.22 + Kanazawa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Kanazawa attack 1.25 + Fagiano Okayama defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fagiano Okayama scores more
43%
level
27%
Kanazawa scores more
30%

Fagiano Okayama at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fagiano Okayama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J2 League: Fagiano Okayama 1–0 Kanazawa

Fagiano Okayama beat Kanazawa 1-0 in J2 League on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at City Light Stadium in Okayama.