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Fafe vs São João Ver — Liga 3 2021

Fafe
Fafe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
São João Ver
São João Ver
9/28/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 7Parque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Fafe41%
×Draw28%
São João Ver31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.30
São João Ver
1.10

Fafe creates 18% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 56 away

creates per match

Fafe
1.18
São João Ver
1.05

allows per match

Fafe
1.15
São João Ver
1.43

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
São João Ver+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

São João Ver →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
69%
Fafe or São João Ver
72%
Draw or São João Ver
59%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
19%
São João Ver wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
73%
Fafe 2+ goals
37%
Fafe 3+ goals
14%
São João Ver 1+ goals
67%
São João Ver 2+ goals
30%
São João Ver 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
57%
São João Ver (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

São João Ver away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.43 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 1.18 + São João Ver defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.30

São João Ver attack 1.05 + Fafe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fafe scores more
41%
level
28%
São João Ver scores more
31%

Fafe at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fafe vs São João Ver

Fafe beat São João Ver 2-1 in Liga 3 on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos in Fafe.