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Fafe vs Montalegre — Liga 3 2021

Fafe
Fafe
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Montalegre
Montalegre
11/28/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 9Parque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Fafe43%
×Draw26%
Montalegre31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.44
Montalegre
1.17

Fafe creates 23% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 28 away

creates per match

Fafe
1.18
Montalegre
1.18

allows per match

Fafe
1.15
Montalegre
1.71

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
Montalegre+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Montalegre →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
69%
Fafe or Montalegre
74%
Draw or Montalegre
57%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
21%
Montalegre wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
76%
Fafe 2+ goals
42%
Fafe 3+ goals
18%
Montalegre 1+ goals
69%
Montalegre 2+ goals
33%
Montalegre 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
58%
Montalegre (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Montalegre away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.71 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 1.18 + Montalegre defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.44

Montalegre attack 1.18 + Fafe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fafe scores more
43%
level
26%
Montalegre scores more
31%

Fafe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 3: Fafe 2–2 Montalegre

Fafe and Montalegre drew 2-2 in Liga 3 on November 28, 2021.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos in Fafe.