Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fafe vs Canelas 2010 — Liga 3 2021

Fafe
Fafe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Canelas 2010
Canelas 2010
8/27/2021Liga 3Liga 3 · Round 3Parque Municipal dos Desportos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Fafe39%
×Draw29%
Canelas 201032%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fafe
1.19
Canelas 2010
1.04

Fafe creates 14% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 42 away

creates per match

Fafe
1.18
Canelas 2010
0.93

allows per match

Fafe
1.15
Canelas 2010
1.19

finishing

Fafe+0.00on par
Canelas 2010+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fafe ↓

Canelas 2010 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Fafe or draw
68%
Fafe or Canelas 2010
71%
Draw or Canelas 2010
61%

Winning margin

Fafe wins by 2+
17%
Canelas 2010 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fafe 1+ goals
70%
Fafe 2+ goals
33%
Fafe 3+ goals
12%
Canelas 2010 1+ goals
65%
Canelas 2010 2+ goals
28%
Canelas 2010 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fafe (draw refunded)
55%
Canelas 2010 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fafe at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.15 · 72 matches

Canelas 2010 away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.19 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fafe attack 1.18 + Canelas 2010 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.19

Canelas 2010 attack 0.93 + Fafe defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fafe scores more
39%
level
29%
Canelas 2010 scores more
32%

Fafe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fafe vs Canelas 2010

Fafe beat Canelas 2010 1-0 in Liga 3 on August 27, 2021.

The match was played at Parque Municipal dos Desportos in Fafe.