Faetano 2–2 Tre Fiori: Result & Stats

Faetano

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Tre Fiori

A. Brisigotti 86'

F. Capriotti 67'

G. Varrella 28'

L. Censoni 17'

9/27/2023

Coppa Titano · Round of 16Stadio Fonte Dell'Ovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Faetano29%

×Draw27%

Tre Fiori44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FaetanoExpected goals in this matchTre Fiori

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.40

Faetano

1.09

Tre Fiori

1.40

Tre Fiori creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

1.25

creates per match

1.41

1.38

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Faetano

1.25

Tre Fiori

1.41

allows per match

Faetano

1.38

Tre Fiori

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faetano+0.00on par

Tre Fiori+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faetano ↓

Tre Fiori →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Faetano or draw

56%

Faetano or Tre Fiori

73%

Draw or Tre Fiori

71%

Winning margin

Faetano wins by 2+

11%

Tre Fiori wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Faetano 1+ goals

66%

Faetano 2+ goals

30%

Faetano 3+ goals

10%

Tre Fiori 1+ goals

75%

Tre Fiori 2+ goals

41%

Tre Fiori 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Faetano (draw refunded)

40%

Tre Fiori (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faetano at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Tre Fiori away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faetano attack 1.25 + Tre Fiori defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tre Fiori attack 1.41 + Faetano defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Faetano scores more

29%

level

27%

Tre Fiori scores more

44%

Tre Fiori at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Tre Fiori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

L. Censoni

28'

G. Varrella

46'

L. Sperandio← S. Antonacci

46'

N. Valle← L. Rizzo

66'

E. Fedeli← K. Islamaj

67'

F. Capriotti

83'

E. Senja← A. Palumbo

83'

R. Tonti← B. Ndao

86'

A. Bertuccini← L. Terenzi

86'

A. Brisigotti

88'

F. Ciccione← V. Cirrottola

90+4'

C. Boldini← V. Ruocco

Faetano

Tre

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: F. Pellegrino

46'▲L. Sperandio←▼S. Antonacci

83'▲E. Senja←▼A. Palumbo

83'▲R. Tonti←▼B. Ndao

86'▲A. Bertuccini←▼L. Terenzi

Faetano substitutes

SperandioSenjaTontiBertucciniSkenderLisiManzaroliPellegrinoTinon

Manager: A. De Falco

46'▲N. Valle←▼L. Rizzo

66'▲E. Fedeli←▼K. Islamaj

88'▲F. Ciccione←▼V. Cirrottola

90+4'▲C. Boldini←▼V. Ruocco

Tre Fiori substitutes

ValleFedeliCiccioneBoldiniCastagnoliQuarantaMuccioliMazzotti