Faetano 1–1 Tre Fiori: Result & Stats | League #404

Faetano

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Tre Fiori

11/6/2016

League #404 · Round 7Stadio di Domagnano (Domagnano)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Faetano24%

×Draw24%

Tre Fiori52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FaetanoExpected goals in this matchTre Fiori

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.73

Faetano

1.09

Tre Fiori

1.73

Tre Fiori creates 59% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 46 away

1.21

creates per match

1.91

1.56

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Faetano

1.21

Tre Fiori

1.91

allows per match

Faetano

1.56

Tre Fiori

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Faetano+0.00on par

Tre Fiori+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Faetano ↓

Tre Fiori →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Faetano or draw

48%

Faetano or Tre Fiori

76%

Draw or Tre Fiori

76%

Winning margin

Faetano wins by 2+

9%

Tre Fiori wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Faetano 1+ goals

66%

Faetano 2+ goals

30%

Faetano 3+ goals

10%

Tre Fiori 1+ goals

82%

Tre Fiori 2+ goals

52%

Tre Fiori 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Faetano (draw refunded)

31%

Tre Fiori (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Faetano at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 48 matches

Tre Fiori away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Faetano attack 1.21 + Tre Fiori defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.09

Tre Fiori attack 1.91 + Faetano defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Faetano scores more

24%

level

24%

Tre Fiori scores more

52%

Tre Fiori at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Tre Fiori will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff