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FA Euro New York vs New York RB III — USL League Two 2018

FA Euro New York
FA Euro New York
PST
00:00
New York RB III
New York RB III
7/12/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 54Poly Prep Country Day School (New York City)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

FA Euro New York36%
×Draw28%
New York RB III35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA Euro New York
1.17
New York RB III
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

creates per match

FA Euro New York
1.27
New York RB III
1.07

allows per match

FA Euro New York
1.23
New York RB III
1.07

finishing

FA Euro New York+0.00on par
New York RB III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA Euro New York ↓

New York RB III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

FA Euro New York or draw
65%
FA Euro New York or New York RB III
72%
Draw or New York RB III
64%

Winning margin

FA Euro New York wins by 2+
15%
New York RB III wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FA Euro New York 1+ goals
69%
FA Euro New York 2+ goals
33%
FA Euro New York 3+ goals
11%
New York RB III 1+ goals
68%
New York RB III 2+ goals
32%
New York RB III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FA Euro New York (draw refunded)
51%
New York RB III (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA Euro New York at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

New York RB III away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA Euro New York attack 1.27 + New York RB III defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.17

New York RB III attack 1.07 + FA Euro New York defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FA Euro New York scores more
36%
level
28%
New York RB III scores more
35%

FA Euro New York at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FA Euro New York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Euro New York vs New York RB III — Match Preview

FA Euro New York face New York RB III on July 12, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FA Euro New York host New York RB III at Poly Prep Country Day School (New York City).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.