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FA 2000 vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FA 2000
FA 2000
Preview
13:00
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
3/25/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 20
Big match
49%
FA 2000
model favours
49%23%28%

Nykobing FC are unbeaten in 11 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FA 200049%
×Draw23%
Nykobing FC28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.85
Nykobing FC
1.35

FA 2000 creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 32 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.53
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

FA 2000
1.58
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
72%
FA 2000 or Nykobing FC
77%
Draw or Nykobing FC
51%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
27%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
84%
FA 2000 2+ goals
55%
FA 2000 3+ goals
28%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
74%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
39%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
64%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.53 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + FA 2000 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FA 2000 scores more
49%
level
23%
Nykobing FC scores more
28%

FA 2000 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FA 2000 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • FA 2000 score first in only 7% of matches
  • Nykobing FC have won 6 in a row
  • 73% of Nykobing FC’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Nykobing FC have won 5 of the last 6 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
2000
LDLD
FC
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA 2000 vs Nykobing FC — Match Preview

FA 2000 face Nykobing FC on March 25, 2027 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.