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FA 2000 vs Middelfart — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

FA 2000
FA 2000
Preview
12:00
Middelfart
Middelfart
4/3/20272nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 22
Big match
39%
Middelfart
model favours
36%25%39%

FA 2000 score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
54%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

FA 200036%
×Draw25%
Middelfart39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FA 2000
1.39
Middelfart
1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 56 away

creates per match

FA 2000
1.53
Middelfart
1.32

allows per match

FA 2000
1.58
Middelfart
1.25

finishing

FA 2000+0.00on par
Middelfart+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FA 2000 ↓

Middelfart →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FA 2000 or draw
61%
FA 2000 or Middelfart
75%
Draw or Middelfart
64%

Winning margin

FA 2000 wins by 2+
17%
Middelfart wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FA 2000 1+ goals
75%
FA 2000 2+ goals
40%
FA 2000 3+ goals
16%
Middelfart 1+ goals
77%
Middelfart 2+ goals
42%
Middelfart 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

FA 2000 (draw refunded)
48%
Middelfart (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FA 2000 at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.58 · 36 matches

Middelfart away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.25 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FA 2000 attack 1.53 + Middelfart defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.39

Middelfart attack 1.32 + FA 2000 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FA 2000 scores more
36%
level
25%
Middelfart scores more
39%

Middelfart at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Middelfart will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
2000
LDLD
Middelfart
LLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA 2000 vs Middelfart — Match Preview

FA 2000 face Middelfart on April 3, 2027 in this 2nd Division - Group 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.