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F91 Dudelange vs Wiltz — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Wiltz
Wiltz
3/6/2021National DivisionNational Division · Round 15Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

F91 Dudelange58%
×Draw20%
Wiltz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
2.19
Wiltz
1.25

F91 Dudelange creates 75% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 75 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
Wiltz
1.31

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
Wiltz
1.92

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Wiltz+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Wiltz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
79%
F91 Dudelange or Wiltz
80%
Draw or Wiltz
42%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
36%
Wiltz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
89%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
64%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
37%
Wiltz 1+ goals
71%
Wiltz 2+ goals
36%
Wiltz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
73%
Wiltz (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Wiltz away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.92 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Wiltz defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.19

Wiltz attack 1.31 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
58%
level
20%
Wiltz scores more
21%

F91 Dudelange at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: F91 Dudelange vs Wiltz

F91 Dudelange and Wiltz drew 3-3 in National Division on March 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.