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F91 Dudelange vs Union Titus Petange — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Union Titus Petange
Union Titus Petange
9/18/2021National DivisionNational Division · Round 6Stade Jos Nosbaum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

F91 Dudelange55%
×Draw22%
Union Titus Petange23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
2.02
Union Titus Petange
1.23

F91 Dudelange creates 64% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 111 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
Union Titus Petange
1.26

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
Union Titus Petange
1.59

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Union Titus Petange+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Union Titus Petange →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
77%
F91 Dudelange or Union Titus Petange
78%
Draw or Union Titus Petange
45%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
33%
Union Titus Petange wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
87%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
60%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
33%
Union Titus Petange 1+ goals
71%
Union Titus Petange 2+ goals
35%
Union Titus Petange 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
71%
Union Titus Petange (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

Union Titus Petange away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + Union Titus Petange defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.02

Union Titus Petange attack 1.26 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
55%
level
22%
Union Titus Petange scores more
23%

F91 Dudelange at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: F91 Dudelange 3–1 Union Titus Petange

F91 Dudelange beat Union Titus Petange 3-1 in National Division on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum in Dudelange.