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F91 Dudelange vs UNA Strassen — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
Preview
14:00
UNA Strassen
UNA Strassen
8/9/2026National DivisionNational Division · Round 2Stade Jos Nosbaum
Big match
52%
F91 Dudelange
model favours
52%22%26%

UNA Strassen are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

F91 Dudelange52%
×Draw22%
UNA Strassen26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.93
UNA Strassen
1.31

F91 Dudelange creates 47% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 112 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.45
UNA Strassen
1.43

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.19
UNA Strassen
1.41

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
UNA Strassen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

UNA Strassen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
74%
F91 Dudelange or UNA Strassen
78%
Draw or UNA Strassen
48%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
30%
UNA Strassen wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
85%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
57%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
30%
UNA Strassen 1+ goals
73%
UNA Strassen 2+ goals
38%
UNA Strassen 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
67%
UNA Strassen (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.19 · 111 matches

UNA Strassen away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.41 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.45 + UNA Strassen defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.93

UNA Strassen attack 1.43 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
52%
level
22%
UNA Strassen scores more
26%

F91 Dudelange at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of UNA Strassen’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • UNA Strassen score first in 60% of matches
  • F91 Dudelange win just 47% against the top half (vs 79% against the bottom)
  • UNA Strassen win just 31% against the top half (vs 58% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 9 of the last 10 meetings
  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.8 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Dudelange
WWLLW
Strassen
WWWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

F91 Dudelange vs UNA Strassen — Match Preview

F91 Dudelange face UNA Strassen on August 9, 2026 in this National Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

F91 Dudelange host UNA Strassen at Stade Jos Nosbaum.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.