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F91 Dudelange vs Racing FC Union Luxembourg — National Division 2018

F91 Dudelange
F91 Dudelange
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
4/14/2019National DivisionNational Division · Round 20Stade Jos Nosbaum (Diddeleng (Dudelange))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

F91 Dudelange50%
×Draw22%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

F91 Dudelange
1.92
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.39

F91 Dudelange creates 38% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 109 away

creates per match

F91 Dudelange
2.48
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.61

allows per match

F91 Dudelange
1.17
Racing FC Union Luxembourg
1.35

finishing

F91 Dudelange+0.00on par
Racing FC Union Luxembourg+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

F91 Dudelange ↓

Racing FC Union Luxembourg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

F91 Dudelange or draw
72%
F91 Dudelange or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
78%
Draw or Racing FC Union Luxembourg
50%

Winning margin

F91 Dudelange wins by 2+
28%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

F91 Dudelange 1+ goals
85%
F91 Dudelange 2+ goals
57%
F91 Dudelange 3+ goals
30%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 1+ goals
75%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2+ goals
40%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

F91 Dudelange (draw refunded)
64%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

F91 Dudelange at home — creates 2.48, concedes 1.17 · 115 matches

Racing FC Union Luxembourg away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.35 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

F91 Dudelange attack 2.48 + Racing FC Union Luxembourg defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.92

Racing FC Union Luxembourg attack 1.61 + F91 Dudelange defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

F91 Dudelange scores more
50%
level
22%
Racing FC Union Luxembourg scores more
28%

F91 Dudelange at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "F91 Dudelange will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Kevin Malget
90'
Patrick Stumpf

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

National Division: F91 Dudelange 2–0 Racing FC Union Luxembourg

F91 Dudelange beat Racing FC Union Luxembourg 2-0 in National Division on April 14, 2019.

Goals: Kevin Malget (24'), Patrick Stumpf (90').

The match was played at Stade Jos Nosbaum (Diddeleng (Dudelange)).